Vios Energy chief warns Nigeria's grid could be abandoned like Pakistan's as battery costs collapse

LAGOS — The most consequential energy story in Africa right now is not about a discovery or a dam. It is about a battery, and the speed at which its price is falling. Sola Arifayan, chief executive of Vios Energy, told a webinar hosted by Stransact Chartered Accountants on September 30 that Nigeria could watch its customers walk away from the national grid the way Pakistan's have — not because of policy, but because the maths of self-generation is turning in their favour.

The numbers behind that warning are stark. Arifayan said battery technology could cut costs by 50 to 70 percent within one to two years, with battery lifetimes approaching those of solar panels. BloombergNEF's 2025 battery price survey, published in December 2025, found lithium-ion packs for stationary storage fell 45 percent in a single year to $70 per kilowatt-hour. Pakistan has already imported more than 51 gigawatts of Chinese solar modules, 18 gigawatts of them in the year to June 2025, and its utilities report falling midday demand as customers generate their own power. Batteries remain the main barrier to large-scale solar in Nigeria, Arifayan said, costing three to four times as much as panels and inverter combined and lasting five to eight years against 25 years for panels.

Vios Energy is not a household name, but it sits at the centre of Nigeria's power puzzle. The company holds the commercial management of the 40 MW Kashimbila hydro plant in Taraba State and is developing grid-connected solar around it. Arifayan's argument is that hydro and solar are natural partners: hydro output can fall by up to 75 percent between late February and late April, which are also peak months for solar. He said Nigeria has developed less than half its hydro potential. His caution cuts against the romance of off-grid solutions. Captive and embedded generation, he said, will always cost more per unit than grid power because Nigeria has about twice as much generation capacity as it delivers. "Whether it be mini-grids, captive power or embedded generation, it's all band-aids."

The regulatory view is more measured but not dismissive. Dafe Akpeneye, Commissioner for Legal, Licensing and Compliance at the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, said Pakistan's grid had deteriorated to the point where customers switched to rooftop solar in large numbers and "basically abandoned the grid." He said he did not expect Nigeria to follow, "but we need to work on it." Akpeneye noted hydro is the only renewable capacity on Nigeria's grid, as intermittency has so far prevented solar integration, and that Nigeria will remain "a gas country" with gas as baseload in the short to medium term. Renewables, he added, are already the main source of generation for embedded plants, mini-grids and household systems.

For anyone tracking capital flows in Africa, this is the signal to watch. Nigeria's grid is unreliable enough that solar cannot be deployed without storage — which makes rooftop solar easier to adopt in the United Kingdom than in Nigeria despite similar hours of sunlight. If battery prices keep falling, the economics of staying connected will erode from below. Arifayan's single most useful step for government in the next 12 months was blunt: "get out of the way of markets," including eliminating subsidies that introduce politics into pricing, while protecting vulnerable customers by other means. The alternative is a slow-motion exit that no utility can reverse.

The wider lesson extends beyond Nigeria. Across Africa, the question is no longer whether solar can compete, but whether grids can justify their own existence. Arifayan's Pakistan comparison is a warning, not a prophecy. A follow-up seminar, Energy in Africa 2026, is scheduled for Nairobi from November 30 to December 4. By then, the battery price curve may have made the argument for him.